Analytical Affirmation: Straight Bets vs.

The Stats Don’t Lie: Why single sports bets always beat out parlays.

You may be surprised to know that the majority of wagers taken in by US sportsbooks are parlays. Or, you may be one of those bettors who are placing a majority of multi-pick parlays, as opposed to single bets. If that’s the case, you absolutely need to keep reading, because the old adage is true; “the stats don’t lie”. In this case, the stats indicate that parlays are one of the worst sports bets you can possibly make.

Why Single Sports Bets Always Beat Out Parlays

Let’s start with the short answer. Statistically speaking, single bets on major sports win far more often than parlays. Yes, I’m aware that the payout for a winning parlay can be higher than that of a moneylines, spreads and totals. But if we look at it in terms of profitability for the sportsbooks, the evidence is glaring.

The following chart indicates the win percentage for sportsbooks over a five year period (2015–2019). It compares the win% for parlay bets, compared to single bets on the three most popular sports venues; football, basketball and baseball. A final column merges all ‘other’ sports into one.

This data, taken from the public records of the Nevada Gaming Commission, indicates a number of important factors.

#1 Parlays are Bad Bets, Period

Sportsbooks win more parlay bets than any type of single wager on the market. The most recent year on the chart was the absolute worst for sports fans, when bookies scooped nearly 30% of all wagers placed.

Don’t mistake this information. It doesn’t mean that, on average 76.02% of all parlay bettors in the last five years were successful. That would be a phenomenal statistic, were it true. What it really means is that, for every $100 wagered, players lost (and the casino won) $24.98.

It means that parlay bettors experienced an overall return to player (RTP) of 76.02%. That equates to a house edge of 24.98%. That’s worse than any slot machine you’ll ever come across; worse than just about any scratch-off lottery ticket; almost as bad as the casino’s worst-paying game of all time, keno.

The problem is that parlay wagers – no matter how good each bet within that parlay looks individually – require too many variables to play out just right. In baseball, for instance, underdogs win 41.6% of the time. If you bet a parlay with three MLB favorites – even obvious favorites – your chances of all three picks being right are not good. That’s why winning parlays pay so much – because the sportsbooks know they’re probably going to take your money anyway.

#2 Baseball Bettors Have the Best Record

We just established that underdogs in baseball win 41.6% of the time, which makes this stat rather hard to believe. But the stats don’t lie. Single-wager baseball bettors win more frequently than punters who bet any other sports (outside of parlay bets, of course). Maybe it’s time you brush up on your knowledge of the MLB, its rosters, and the league’s best pitchers?

#3 Oddsmakers and Bookies are Getting Smarter

In 2019 – the last year of full, regularly scheduled sports to draw data from – almost every type of bet resulted in more losses for bettors, and more wins for the bookies. Parlay bets lost 4.86% more often compared to the five year average; 12.56% more often than in 2017. Football bettors lost 1.18% more often than the average. Baseball bettors suffered 1.02% more losses. Bettors on ‘other’ sports lost 0.39% more. The only sport in which fans won more money betting in 2019 was basketball; up 0.13% compared to the 5yr avg, and 0.99% compared to the previous year.